The US presidential elections represent the biggest threat to the US economy if the two candidates ’results converge and they have to resort to the courts to resolve this potential dispute, if both of them fail to win by a large vote difference.


And the repercussions of the potential negative effects of this path are increased by the political polarization that America is experiencing, the waves of protests that the US states have witnessed during the past weeks, and the promotion of conspiracy theories on the part of Republican President Donald Trump.


Indicators of this possible path appeared two days before the results were announced, as the number of lawsuits reached about 350 in 44 states contesting the outcome, according to the British newspaper, The Telegraph.


This possible scenario recalls what happened in 2000, after the Republican and Democratic candidates, George W. Bush and Al Gore, respectively, were forced to resort to the courts after they failed to resolve the vote in the first round. This was reflected in the immediate decline in stock markets, and the rush of investors to traditional safe havens such as gold.


For her part, Eleanor Craig, a strategic analyst at "Saxo Bank", said that one of the repercussions of going to court in 2000 was the drop in the "S&P 500" index, which includes the shares of the 500 largest American financial companies from banks and financial institutions, about 9%. Before the American judiciary settled the result in favor of Bush in early December.


Craig warned of the "worse" repercussions on the US economy than what happened in 2000, saying that "having to this scenario in the current elections will lead to a change in the market dynamics very quickly and a great hedge for market traders."


In a related context, Zach Pandel, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, said that the victory of the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, will push for calm in the markets and a weakening of the dollar, justifying that the latter follows a "less aggressive" approach to foreign policy, in addition to the high tax rates. The companies may make US stocks less attractive, which leads to selling the dollar.


The worst-case scenario for the US economy is Trump's refusal to relinquish power, as this will be reflected in the transformation of things to become "uglier", according to Jim Levis of the British company M&G Investments, who confirms that this will end in the "worst result of the dollar and bond markets." And the assets of risk ».


He also adds: "Questioning the sanctity of Western democratic law will have major repercussions for the state of the US dollar as the primary bond market, stock market, and currency market."